Weekly Feature

A feature of the emerging generation of mobile broadband standards is that the major operators have seized the steering wheel, and are determined to ensure the technologies are optimized for their commercial needs. The most powerful body coordinating the operators' activities is the NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks) Alliance, which numbers 18 carrier members and works with a wide range of other bodies. When it was first formed, it seemed to be a force for unity across the industry, able to support more than one RAN technology, and bring various 4G contenders within a common umbrella of patents policies, performance tests and interoperability systems. But now the operators are descending into the same politics that have often delayed or fragmented standards over which the vendors have ruled, and the clearest signal is that the Alliance has selected just one technology - LTE - as its preferred new generation network, and this has prompted WiMAX' greatest supporter, Sprint Nextel, to quit the Alliance.

The developments dampen hopes for a near term convergence of WiMAX and LTE into a single mobile broadband standard for the run-up to 4G, although the Alliance did indicate, when it made its LTE selection earlier this month, that it would assess WiMAX again in its next iteration, 802.16m. This suggests strongly that WiMAX and LTE could remain separate for the current generation and then come more closely together at the 16m/LTE 2 stage, in a few years' time, assuming that both technologies have strong market positions by then.

India is absolutely critical to the fortunes of WiMAX, and the level of uptake in the huge nation will help decide how prominent a position 802.16e takes in the overall wireless landscape in the next decade. There are many reasons for WiMAX supporters to be hopeful, but every time it appears that the technology may a major green light this year, the political disputes with which the Indian telecoms market is plagued throw another roadblock in the way. So last week, regulator TRAI clashed once again with the Department of Telecom (DoT), threatening the plan to auction mobile broadband licenses in 2.3-2.7GHz this year alongside 3G rights - a dual-layer plan that could help underpin a wireless revolution for India, with operators able to roll out 3G and 4G services according to need, and with WiMAX likely to play a major role.

Despite the frustration of delays - which, if prolonged, threaten to allow LTE into the market - India remains WiMAX' biggest single hope for revenue and global influence. Most of the major operators and many small ones are already building out 802.16e in 3.3GHz for wireless DSL,enterprise and nomadic data services, with Tata, BSNL and Bharti among the players. The leading cellcos are likely to snap up the 3G licenses and some of the mobile broadband franchises, but these will be fully technology neutral and Tata, Bharti and Reliance have all expressed interest in using WiMAX as their primary '4G' system. Research by Rethink into operator spending intentions for mobile broadband indicate that, after 2010 (assuming the auctions go ahead by the end of this year), India will show the highest annual growth in WiMAX investment of any country in 2010 and 2011, and at that point will be the leading nation in terms of WiMAX roll-out. On the subscriber side, another report, this one from Springboard Research, estimates that India will be the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region by 2012, accounting for over 35% of service revenues across the area, and boasting 15.8m subscribers.

Whether or not Clearwire turns into a major commercial success in the US, it has helped define the shape of the mobile internet, and shown the way for alternative operators to challenge the incumbents by offering open broadband services, not just directly but - more importantly to profitability - through wholesale and joint venture partners. Now the question is whether Clearwire can translate its founder Craig McCaw's disruptive vision beyond the US markets that he and his team understand so well. The operator owns spectrum, directly or via partnerships, in many parts of Europe and has alliances in Canada, parts of Latin America and Asia. It insists that these assets were not just acquired as investments and that the aim is to build out networks rather than sell on the licenses.

But this will require partnerships, since Clearwire lacks the spectrum coverage or the financing to do more, single-handed, than being a local provider in spot territories. While this is a reasonable business model for many small broadband wireless providers in underserved areas of Europe and elsewhere, it will not deliver the scalability and margins that will please the shareholders in the new Clearwire, which will result around year end from its merger with Sprint Xohm, with financing from Intel, Google and three US cablecos. So it is hardly surprising that Clearwire is already on the look-out for partners in Europe that could maximize the return on its investment in spectrum, accelerate roll-out and support a range of commercial mobile internet models and routes to market - just as the cablecos are doing for Clearwire in the US.

This week saw the second Femtocells Europe conference in London, with the supporters of the miniature base stations seeking to look beyond the issue of indoor coverage to focus on more far-reaching benefits for operators - advanced applications, new ways of building out mobile broadband networks like WiMAX and LTE, and the promise of the sub-$99 product. All these are vital if femtocells are to achieve their goal of first commercial deployments in 2009, as are standards - the Femto Forum, whose plenary meeting was co-located, has made impressive progress on creating standards for connecting femtos to the core network, and now aims to do the same thing by the end of this week for another issue close to carriers' hearts: interference management.

As so often in the mobile broadband sector, the hard-nosed, real world business plans of the established operators were eclipsed, at least in the headlines, by the more bluesky activities of the 'new Clearwire' - the cheerleader for Mobile WiMAX that should be formed around year end by the merger of Sprint Nextel's Xohm unit and the original Clearwire, with funding from Intel, Google and the major US cablecos. Since Clearwire is the first major operator to deploy WiMAX for genuine mobile broadband and multimedia services, rather than traditional access, it is also likely to be the first WiMAX carrier to take an interest in femtocells. Sprint has been an early adopter of femtos, with the Samsung Airave CDMA product - limited in functionality, but hugely popular with its users. And the merged Clearwire's major supplier, Motorola, has also shown strong interest in femto technology. But the 'new Clearwire' has to be cautious about making any firm strategy statements until it is officially an entity, and in London, its key cable partner, Comcast, appeared to have jumped the gun.

The key advantage that WiMAX has always had over LTE, in the race to be mobile broadband top dog, has been its headstart of around two years, but even as the community gathered for a WiMAX Forum conference in Amsterdam last week, there were warning signs that this advantage was being gradually whittled away. Indeed, one market report warned that, unless spectrum auctions and commercial roll-outs of certified Mobile WiMAX networks gathered momentum before the end of this year, the market potential in mobile broadband would be "insignificant," and 802.16 will be confined to fixed services. The analysts at Frost & Sullivan highlight issues that even the WiMAX community itself is raising. These include increasing uptake of 3G/Wi-Fi handsets and laptops, making WiMAX less attractive, especially once MIMO-enabled 802.11n is mainstream; uncertainties over IPR licensing; the accelerating pace of LTE development; and delays in wave two certification. The report also questions whether WiMAX can handle voice/data as effectively as HSPA, or whether it can hand off to 3G efficiently, if it cannot, whether users will be prepared to carry two devices, one for cellular voice and one for WiMAX personal broadband.

Israeli semiconductor start-up DesignArt Networks has revived a concept that was voguish a couple of years back in Wi-Fi mesh, and applied it to licensed band WiMAX and, in future LTE. This is the integration of backhaul and access into a single compact unit that can be used to build dense underlay networks with many of the elements self-backhauling, to reduce the pressure on leased lines or other options.

The fabless chip company, which boasts strategic investment from Motorola, has come out of stealth mode and unveiled its first product, a WiMAX system on chip (SoC) targeted at systems for smaller or metrozone carriers, or for the rising trend for even major operators to build out new networks initially in dense hotzones for areas of high demand, handing off outside the zone to 3G for wide area coverage.

Nortel has been one of the most aggressive vendors in talking up its WiMAX plans and its R&D program, geared toward a unified architecture to support LTE and 802.16e. Despite that, commercial sales have come in fixed WiMAX, where Nortel badges systems from Airspan, and now it is turning to a partner for Mobile WiMAX too, with a new deal with Alvarion.

The two vendors announced their much anticipated alliance as we went to press on Wednesday, promising an end-to-end wireless broadband offering for mobile and nomadic networks. This will be based on Israel-based Alvarion's RAN technology, combined with Nortel's offerings for the core network and backhaul. The Canadian company also brings applications, such as its carrier VoIP product, and the back-up of its Global Services organization, to the party, as well as the ecosystem of WiMAX device and CPE makers it has been accumulating, especially among the Taiwanese ODMs, over the past two years.

In the early days of Mobile WiMAX, there was widespread criticism of slow progress in developing the core network, but last year, the commitment of Sprint Nextel and a few other major operators drove vendors to step up their efforts, and the R6 interface for the ASN gateway took center stage. However, no sooner had robust platforms started to appear, from equipment makers and specialists, than disputes over the favored R6 profile have erupted again and, as in the RAN, the looming presence of LTE has forced core network suppliers to refocus their efforts on unified 4G platforms.

Intel has for many years been far more than the leading chipmaker. It is also a company that creates markets and sets trends, in order to seed its own future revenue streams. In wireless, examples have been Wi-Fi, WiMedia and of course WiMAX, as Intel looks to supply the silicon for the mobile internet devices - from phones to mini-notebooks to consumer electronics - that it believes will become almost ubiquitous. Its support for these three "Wi" technologies has been partly, of course, enforced by its significant disadvantage in the chip platforms that may, in the end, dominate that mobile internet revolution - the cellphone architectures favored by Qualcomm, Texas Instruments and others. By contrast, the Intel-backed systems come from a PC/IP heritage and, if they can become universal, the x86 giant is in pole position to lead the market as it shifts towards 4G. However, if the customers resist their charms, Intel will not remain religiously faithful to its chosen platforms for longer than makes commercial sense, and the past week has brought two sets of comments from senior executives that suggest the chipmaker's old dream of making WiMAX the backbone of the mobile internet has faded, and it is gearing up to embrace a world where LTE will take the leading role.

The UK's upcoming auction of 2.6GHz mobile broadband spectrum is intensely anticipated, partly because it is the first major European market to make the move, and so will provide some clear indicators for the rest of the region; but also because it represents the best chance for a WiMAX operator to gain a national license in a leading EU economy. But the auction, which has already been delayed once and is now expected this fall, may now be postponed again, as T-Mobile launches legal action to force regulator Ofcom to hold back on the sale until it has finalized its rules on the refarming of 900MHz GSM spectrum.