The key advantage that WiMAX has always had over LTE, in the race to be mobile broadband top dog, has been its headstart of around two years, but even as the community gathered for a WiMAX Forum conference in Amsterdam last week, there were warning signs that this advantage was being gradually whittled away. Indeed, one market report warned that, unless spectrum auctions and commercial roll-outs of certified Mobile WiMAX networks gathered momentum before the end of this year, the market potential in mobile broadband would be "insignificant," and 802.16 will be confined to fixed services.
The analysts at Frost & Sullivan highlight issues that even the WiMAX community itself is raising. These include increasing uptake of 3G/Wi-Fi handsets and laptops, making WiMAX less attractive, especially once MIMO-enabled 802.11n is mainstream; uncertainties over IPR licensing; the accelerating pace of LTE development; and delays in wave two certification. The report also questions whether WiMAX can handle voice/data as effectively as HSPA, or whether it can hand off to 3G efficiently, if it cannot, whether users will be prepared to carry two devices, one for cellular voice and one for WiMAX personal broadband.
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