"Over the past several weeks, I have written a number of articles speculating about Intel's intention to exit the WiMAX space and cited its first volley when its VP of marketing suggested that WiMAX and LTE should become one and the same," Seybold wrote in a recent blog post. Newswireless.net's Guy Kewney gives Seybold credit for stating directly what many have whispered recently.

We wonder, however, if Seybold is missing the point here--"backing out of WiMAX" is strong language. Seybold contends in this earlier article that Intel's plan is probably to switch to LTE/WiMAX chipsets--hardly a backing out. What do you think--Is Intel backing out of WiMAX? Changing its priorities? Or is this just business as usual?

WiMAX Trends' columnist Caroline Gabriel seized on Intel's slow pivot a few week's back in a column that certainly got a few of our readers' attentions--revisit her analysis here.

ALSO: Others in the industry are whispering about the WiMAX World Awards. Have you submitted your company for one yet? Check out all the details here and get those nominations in by August 8! There will be no extensions this year--so don't delay!

The developments dampen hopes for a near term convergence of WiMAX and LTE into a single mobile broadband standard for the run-up to 4G, although the Alliance did indicate, when it made its LTE selection earlier this month, that it would assess WiMAX again in its next iteration, 802.16m. This suggests strongly that WiMAX and LTE could remain separate for the current generation and then come more closely together at the 16m/LTE 2 stage, in a few years' time, assuming that both technologies have strong market positions by then.

Sprint said it ended its relationship with the Alliance after the group chose to endorse LTE  because the body was supposed to endorse the coexistence of various technologies without favoring just one, and that technology neutrality was a key tenet when it co-founded the Alliance, in order to avoid duplication of work by existing standards bodies. "Sprint was disappointed that NGMN shifted from its original technology neutral stance," said a spokesperson. The other founder operators were China Mobile, NTT DoCoMo, Vodafone, Orange, KPN and T-Mobile, all of them planning to make LTE their major next generation network, at least in their heartland territories. Most of the other 12 carrier members also back LTE, and even those that have major WiMAX plans, like Tata and KDDI, did not fight too hard to retain WiMAX or the technology neutral strategy, suggesting they will take an interest in LTE too.

All this could be another blow to the chances of Mobile WiMAX gaining a prominent position in the mobile carrier market, driving it further towards sectors where it has a headstart over LTE, or where LTE activities have not been focused - such as fixed line operators moving to quad play, or fixed/nomadic access for underserved areas. There is little doubt that WiMAX will amass a significant presence in these markets, but the odds look increasingly poor in the 3G heartlands.

This leaves Sprint Nextel virtually isolated as a tier one carrier with a truly '4G' vision of mobile broadband based on WiMAX. This in turns means that its interests are not represented by the mainstream operator bodies, which could hamper its roll-out of new technologies, for instance by reducing the confidence of device makers in 802.16e. It also means that Sprint's influence over the WiMAX Forum is disproportionately high, because of its poster child role, and while it is important to Sprint to ensure that the Forum's agenda is geared to its commercial needs as it prepares to merge its WiMAX unit with Clearwire, its dominance is also alienating some smaller carriers, whose voice may not be heard in the Forum. The main exceptions are KT and British Telecom, the first because of its roll-out of Wi-Bro in Korea, the latter because it represents WiMAX' best hope for gaining a tier one European carrier (though only if BT acquires a 2.6GHz license, by no means a foregone conclusion).

The burden on the 'new Clearwire' will be immense - its roll-out and the real world performance of its technology and its services strategy will be closely watched and a major factor in deciding whether or not the mobile operator community gains confidence in WiMAX again, perhaps taking a renewed interest at the 802.16m stage.

Despite the frustration of delays - which, if prolonged, threaten to allow LTE into the market - India remains WiMAX' biggest single hope for revenue and global influence. Most of the major operators and many small ones are already building out 802.16e in 3.3GHz for wireless DSL,enterprise and nomadic data services, with Tata, BSNL and Bharti among the players. The leading cellcos are likely to snap up the 3G licenses and some of the mobile broadband franchises, but these will be fully technology neutral and Tata, Bharti and Reliance have all expressed interest in using WiMAX as their primary '4G' system. Research by Rethink into operator spending intentions for mobile broadband indicate that, after 2010 (assuming the auctions go ahead by the end of this year), India will show the highest annual growth in WiMAX investment of any country in 2010 and 2011, and at that point will be the leading nation in terms of WiMAX roll-out. On the subscriber side, another report, this one from Springboard Research, estimates that India will be the largest market in the Asia-Pacific region by 2012, accounting for over 35% of service revenues across the area, and boasting 15.8m subscribers.

The vision that the DoT and the operators have, which encompasses a wide range of social and economic reforms, will drive rapid and innovative build-out - once the spectrum is available. The price of those licenses are likely to be high because so much is at stake, and could go even higher if the DoT gets its way and allows foreign bidders to participate. This is one of the disputes that is causing continuing tension between the government and the regulator, which blazed again last week.

TRAI sent off its recommendations on allocation and pricing of 2.3-2.7GHz licenses (two blocks of 40MHz each in total have become available) to the DoT on Friday, highlighting various disagreements. First, the two bodies disagree on who should be allowed to bid for WiMAX-class spectrum. TRAI wants to make the three main categories of providers - Unified Access Service License (UASL) holders, Cellular Mobile Service Providers (CMSPs), and ISPs - eligible as they can all offer broadband services. The DoT argues that there is a large number of UASLs and nationwide ISPs, so there is no need to include regional ISPs, as there will be plenty of competition for the licenses anyway. This would be against "the principle of equity and level playing field" responded TRAI on Friday, especially since the UASLs include regional telcos.

The second area of dispute is over the size of spectrum blocks to be auctioned - though neither is suggesting blocks that, in the opinion of most experts, will be enough to support true broadband or the visionary plans of the larger operators. While advanced WiMAX broadband models are generally accepted to need at least 20MHz, and ideally 40-50MHz or more, of spectrum, TRAI proposes allocating the band in blocks of 15MHz per operator, and the DoT in just 10MHz. This reflects the dilemma that will affect most regulators in mobile broadband - stimulate competition and innovative operators by offering a high number of small blocks, which are affordable but run the risk of failing to support a profit model; or issue just a few licenses, giving certain operators (almost certainly the largest) sufficient spectrum to support truly advanced broadband applications (the new Clearwire will have a huge 120MHz average, the main reason why it will be able to deliver services that would bring down the network for many operators with more measly allocations in 2.5GHz).

TRAI has now amended its recommendation, suggesting that 5MHz blocks should be sold, but giving operators the option to buy up to three. It is also fighting for a one-stage sealed bid auction in each of India's telecoms regions or 'circles', while the DoT wants all successful bidders to match the highest bidder so the price is the same in each circle.

On one area TRAI and the DoT agree - the former has supported the government's proposal to raise the reserve price for a 10MHz chunk from 1.12bn rupees to 5.25bn. With the 5MHz option, that would make the reserve price for a nationwide network 2.63bn rupees, if an operator believed it could create a business model in so little spectrum.

All these disagreements may seem technical, but they could enmire the process in a lengthy tit-for-tat debate that could delay the chances for WiMAX vendors to generate new revenues in India and for operators to kick off their ambitious plans. And as if that weren't enough, TRAI has also slammed the DoT for the lack of a transparent spectrum management regime, claiming it has been kept in the dark about the progress in getting incumbents in the 2.5GHz band to vacate their frequencies. TRAI said: "The results of the efforts made by the [DoT] to get the required spectrum bands vacated/refarmed from the incumbents are not available in the public domain. The Authority has time and again emphasized that in the times to come, the spectrum will become the most valuable and scarce resource as with the advent of new data centric applications, its demand will increase and there will be competitive users for the same band of spectrum. Therefore, there is a need to have a transparent, predictable and efficient spectrum management system for allocation and pricing of the spectrum."

TRAI has several times warned the DoT that delays in vacating the spectrum and auctioning it to new providers are putting India behind other countries in its ability to deploy WiMAX and start to address problems of inadequate broadband provision in many regions.